A possible El Niño pattern is already drawing attention months before winter, but San Diego forecasters are urging residents not to treat early chatter as a guarantee of damaging storms.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that NOAA has said there is a 61% chance El Niño conditions will develop, while also cautioning that the eventual strength remains uncertain. John Suk, director of the National Weather Service’s San Diego office, told the newspaper the outlook does not currently raise alarm bells.

The concern is tied to unusually warm ocean water off the West Coast and the possibility that El Niño could add more heat and moisture to winter storm systems. Past strong El Niño periods have brought damaging surf, flooding and bluff failures to parts of California, though forecasters also note that some predicted El Niño winters have produced ordinary rainfall in San Diego County.

For Santee residents, the local angle is preparation rather than panic. Inland communities are less exposed to coastal surf damage, but heavy winter storms can still affect roads, low-lying drainage areas, the San Diego River corridor and hillside neighborhoods across East County.

NOAA is expected to continue updating the outlook as the pattern develops. Until then, the best read is cautious: watch official forecasts, clear drains before the rainy season and avoid treating viral “super El Niño” claims as settled science.

Source: The San Diego Union-Tribune — https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/05/11/the-possibility-of-a-super-el-nino-is-starting-to-make-coastal-california-nervous/