A potentially record-setting El Nino could shape Southern California's fall and winter weather, though forecasters are cautioning residents not to treat the outlook as a guaranteed rain forecast. Times of San Diego reported Saturday that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino in the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter.

Chandler Price, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego, told Times of San Diego that El Nino conditions alone do not automatically mean an unusually wet winter. Forecasters still need to see how the broader weather pattern develops before they can say how much rain San Diego County is likely to receive.

If rain does increase along the coast, storms could begin as early as late September and last through April, according to the report. NOAA also estimated a 75% chance this El Nino could exceed the strength of previous events recorded since the 1950s.

Price said San Diegans should remain vigilant for flooding every winter, not just during El Nino. The regional outlook does not establish how much rain Santee will receive.