Early wildflowers are already carpeting Henderson Canyon Road and other spots near Borrego Springs, raising hopes that the Anza-Borrego Desert State Park could host one of its spectacular super blooms — but scientists are urging cautious optimism.

According to Todd Michaels, a research professor at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, Southern California's heavy winter rains have laid the groundwork for a potential super bloom, but rain alone isn't enough. Temperature and wind conditions must also align. "Right now, it's looking like in Anza-Borrego. Maybe not. Maybe we've had too much heat already," Michaels told NBC San Diego, adding that the desert's growing conditions require a carefully balanced recipe.

Michaels said Death Valley, in the Mojave Desert, may actually be more likely to see a large-scale super bloom this year — a decade after its memorable 2016 event. For the Anza-Borrego area specifically, the window for a super bloom is narrow: late February to late March at lower elevations, and late March through April at higher elevations.

East County residents and day-trippers who want to catch wildflowers are advised to visit Borrego Springs sooner rather than later. Early blooms are already visible, with purple verbena, white evening primrose, purple lupine and yellow desert sunflowers reported in recent weeks. Whether they grow into a full super bloom will depend on weather over the next several weeks.

The last widely celebrated super bloom in Southern California was in Lake Elsinore in 2018, when the small city was overwhelmed by hundreds of thousands of visitors seeking the golden hillsides of poppies. Officials there eventually had to restrict parking and run shuttles to handle the crowds — a reminder that a true super bloom brings both beauty and logistical challenges for nearby communities.